Carona virus/Wuhan China/Pandemic

[PS Power]

That seems to be the case. There is doubt in some places that it can happen that way, but the reports from Wuhan seems to be saying that people are catching it from close contact with people that don't look infected.

The new numbers show 6,000 infected, 134 dead. It's hard to find, but it seems that the "cured" numbers are in the 100-150 range. Meaning almost everyone that has this is still sick. (Officially, that is.)

There is also an apparent person to person transfer in Japan, announced a few hours ago.

*There is a rumor in the intel community that the west coast of the U.S. has at least one city where the disease has escaped containment and is passing from person to person. The feeling right now is that we will have a "slow roll out" announcement over the next few days, to prevent panic. (Rumor though, so get the salt shaker and keep a few grains handy.)

[PS Power]

Nothing that new right now. This is to be expected. News sources are being silenced/growing bored with the topic for the time being. Hopefully the latter. Boredom is acceptable. Suppression of information by authorities is not at all.

[MarciaA]

Thanks for updates. It’s MUCH more then the press or gov is telling us.

[PS Power]

The Novel Corona Virus out of Wuhan China is officially a Pandemic, according to the World Health Organization as of this morning.

CCP (Chinese Communist Party) is announcing an official 8,100 infected and an official 171 dead as of last accounting.

Everyone in the world, including china assumes that both numbers reflect less than 1/10th of the actual infection. Estimates place the real numbers at about 40 times that rate. What we are seeing is what the labs there can test per day, which again, is probably about 2,000 kits. There is also a (highly probable) estimation that the CCP has limited the numbers of kits, so that only one in ten people who make it in to see a doctor during the quarantine can be tested, even if they are symptomatic.

Do not be confused by that in the coming days! the numbers will go up at a stead rate of about 1,500 new cases being confirmed each day there, but it takes nearly a week from test kit to adding the numbers into the official reports for China. Every week that passes doubles the number of infected, at the very least.

We have the first confirmed human to human transmission in Chicago. A woman who went to Wuhan gave it to her husband, who did not. She was free roaming for a bit, before showing symptoms. We do not know what the husband did as toward self quarantine, however. It is being reported that he did not go to any large public events in the last weeks.

Did he go to the store for food? Did he shake hands with anyone? Hug the grand kids? We have no knowledge of any of that.

Again, if you can at all, stock up on food right now. Quarantines don't work in large scale cases, but that doesn't mean you, personally, can't do a better job than most will, if you wish to use enough discipline on the matter.

The government needs to find anyone who has been exposed to a possibly infected person and quarantine them, now. Then anyone they were in contact with needs to stay at home. Food and medical delivery needs to be GIVEN to these people, so they aren't forced to leave their homes. If we do this now, it will cost about a billion dollars, when all is said and done. If we try to do it in three weeks, it will cost about half the GPD of the U.S. and will, ultimately, fail.

*Unless this isn't what it seems. That's still possible. Not likely, and not a thing we should count on, but still, fingers crossed, right?

[PS Power]

Update: Re:Corona Virus Testing in China.

According to the CCP, the Hubei province, where Wuhan is located, can process 6,000 tests per day. (I'd thought it was about 2,000 given the rate of incoming positive results.)

This is useful information! We can tell that about 1/3rd of the tests being taken are coming back positive. Now, there will be things missed, but that percentage is staying pretty solid for now. What does it mean? Well, that a week ago, they were testing people and 1/3rd of them with common flu like symptoms, of fever, aches and pains had the Novel Corona virus in that infected area.

Given the prevalence of the flu, that gives a number to compare with. If ten percent of their population is sick with the flue right now, which isn't uncommon during the season for it, then we can assume that (since anyone with the flu is probably freaking out right now and getting tested if they can, for this other thing) three percent and a smidgen (accurate math!) are infected with the Novel Corona Virus, even if they haven't been tested.

If they have 6,000,000 people left in Wuhan (which isn't the only infected area, but I'm presuming without proof that most of the tests are coming from there right now) that means there are likely 200,000 infected men women and children there.

Second Update: Asymptomatic transmission findings

Out of Germany we have several cases that were rather mild... But each of the people have shown to be able to transmit the virus both before and AFTER symptoms presented. The post symptomatic shedding of viruses was also given as being much higher than anyone expected, meaning that people who think they are fine might be walking around infecting a lot more people than anyone had figured on before.

Worse, some might not even recognize the symptoms as being serious. I mean, it's winter, a fever and a caught for two or three days might not even really catch a lot of people's attention.

Third Update: Death rate

It has come out that the Wuhan AND SURROUNDING AREAS are running their crematoriums twenty-four hours a day. Wuhan normally runs them for four hours each day, meaning a (possible) eight fold increase in bodies being processed.

Normally 300 people pass away in Wuhan each day. (It varies, but that's the average.) That being the case, we are looking at the crematoriums being able to process up to 2,400 each day there, which they are, again apparently, doing right now.

Does that mean the death toll is much higher than being stated? Almost certainly. What we don't know is if there is a back log of people to be processed, or if the places are being run constantly, just to handle the trickle of bodies coming in that might be infected, in order to dispose of them in a timely fashion.

Reminder:

The world is not going to go into this costly of a response for the "sniffles". We are being given a story by the uniformed mainstream press that is basically telling us that nothing much is going on. The flu is worse, after all...

If that's the case, why do anything at all? Yes, a few more people are dying by percentage than would with the flu, but if that isn't a problem, then just wash your hands, cover that sneeze and don't spend BILLIONS of dollars trying to control it...

*Right this moment the world economy has been negatively impacted for years over this. Each day that is getting worse, as China's manufacturing shuts down, a bit at a time.

So, ask yourself, is this nothing, and we are being set up for a global depression the likes of which have never been seen on purpose, or is it a much bigger killer than we are being told? Either way isn't great.

**Sure, we could also be looking at people simply taking extreme precautions for no real reason, or at them panicking, but the CCP doesn't panic over the idea of a few million people dying, in the main. In fact, they have announced that they enjoy the idea of the old, ill and weak dying, in the past, and want to enact it as policy, at least some of them wish to do that.

*****************************************************************************************************

That doesn't mean anyone should panic. Making sensible preparations, getting some extra supplies in, if possible and staying aware is the plan for right now. In the end, if this is as bad as it seems (reading between the lines, not what we are being told) then the truth is that we might lose a big portion of the worlds population. The hardest hit areas will be those with poor sanitation and hygiene already.

So, wash your hands! Don't go to large gatherings for the time being.
Don't kiss strangers. (Or other things with strangers... You know what I mean...)
Avoid eating out.
Eat cooked foods, instead of raw.
Wash your fruits and vegetables well, even before cooking. (Clearly, if you have a greenhouse or garden, normal processing and raw salads are fine! If you have to buy form the store, make certain you take steps to destroy any viruses you can that might be in or on your food.)

[PS Power]

Current world numbers:

14,400 confirmed ill.
304 confirmed dead.
337 confirmed cured. (Virus free.)

Growth rate is still being controlled by the speed that China is able to process tests. They are (probably) not processing even 1/10th of the serious cases.

This may change as we see growth in other areas. Japan is showing early, explosive, growth, with twenty infected already, in what seems to be the second or third round of infection there.

1x4=4
4x4=16... (This is three generations if there is a 4.08 contagion rate.) So, it is either higher than that, or less with another generation in there. Probably not, given the time needed from the first point of contagion.

There has been nine days since the bus driver was infected, if I have that right. He's technically the second generation, though patient zero for Japan proper.

Japan is important to watch, because they have very good personal hygiene, good compliance with rules (compared to almost everyone else in the world) and high population density in Tokyo, where this is taking place. The grow we see here will tell us a lot.

Also, Japan is relatively trustworthy. China isn't. Not on matters such as this.
Which doesn't mean Japan might not hedge as well, but I don't think they will simply make up their numbers, which I think is actually taking place in China right now. They are too regular to be real...

[PS Power]

Official updates, with maps. It's rising quickly.

[PS Power]

The "official Numbers" are up still, being over 28,000 for infections and 565 for deaths at present...


There has also been a leak out of Taiwan, where the numbers have, on three different occasions (once per day, before they are "corrected" to match the numbers from the CCP, or so it seems at present) which show the numbers as being a far more likely 154,000 infected and 25,000 dead. (I rounded the numbers.)

If that set of numbers is correct, or at least indicative of what is actually going on behind the scenes (since, face it, if those are the secret numbers being used by the CCP, then it's probably even worse than that!) we are looking at a death rate of 16.6 percent, not 2.2-2.4.

How likely is this really? Unknown. What I do know is that I couldn't get away with conjecturing about this on any social media, and that the mainstream sources are largely ignoring it as well. The whole story, not just this current bit. They are consistently running numbers from nearly six days ago, hiding the rapid climb of infected and dead...

Why? To prevent panic? If the leaked numbers are even close to correct, then that might be a good idea. Not true panic, but getting everyone to actually start washing their hands, covering their coughs and not touching their faces is a GOOD thing. One that fear might help push some people toward.

Protecting the world economy won't work if 14% of us suddenly die in the next year! (I'm assuming that, over time, we'll get better at dealing with this, one way or the other, dropping the death toll percentage if it's currently at 16.6%)

We can still protect some areas of the world, if we hurry and actually put everyone at three removes into quarantine. At the rate this is progressing, we won't be able to, in a few weeks time.

If we have to lock up/in ten thousand people, we can pay them for their time and make certain they don't lose out too much for their trouble... If we wait, then we will be locking sick families in their houses, like they are doing in many areas in China right now.

Unfortunately, we don't get to choose what policy we follow. I think it would be better to spend a hundred million on a non-issue than it will be to spend half the GDP on trying to recover after a great die off.

*Okay, grumble and grouse. Still, for right now, don't really panic. Wash your hands well and regularly, don't touch your face, sanitize doorknobs and so forth with bleach or other powerful anti-viral... Get extra food in and pay attention to the rumors that come out, because from now on, we cannot trust any "official" source. They are being forced to hide the real news, which is never a good thing.

[qHnED7SnYgQs]

The number of infections is irrelevant for calculating the death ratio.

Death ratio is calculated as: deaths/resolved, where resolved is death+recovered. As we don't know yet what the outcome of infected but not-resolved cases is going to be (but it's likely similar to the cases that are already resolved), the number of infections doesn't matter for calculating the death ratio.

So based on the official numbers from the link you posted above, that's:

565/(565+1198) = 32.05% (worldwide)
549/(549+651) = 45.75% (Hubei only)
16/(16+547) = 2.84% (outside Hubei)

[qHnED7SnYgQs]

2/6/2020, 9:23 PM Deaths Recovered Fatality Rate
Worldwide 565 1339 29.67%
Hubei 549 694 44.17%
Outside Hubei 16 645 2.42%

Looking at the numbers, the extreme mortality in Hubei probably represents either the effect of a completely overwhelmed health system, where only a small fraction of the people needing critical care are able to get it, or, there is a humongous number of infections and recovery from them that remain unreported.

If it's the later, then 2-3% is probably a reasonable long term estimate for fatality rate.

But if it is the former, and the virus breaks containment and spreads uncontained with an estimated Ro of 3-4 in other countries, a "completely overwhelmed health system, where only a small fraction of the people needing critical care are able to get it" could well become the new normal for some time, in which case the global fatality rate would be pushed way up.