Carona virus/Wuhan China/Pandemic

[David]

Infected does matter to an extent, at least mid-crisis.
Assume it kills a lot faster than someone can heal from it, and the reason should be obvious.
So, to keep things simple, let's say only ten people get infected over a week's time, two die, one recovers.
By your measure, it would be a sixty six percent death rate at the end of that week, but those other seven are still fighting the disease and likely to recover simply because they haven't died yet, making it a twenty percent death rate in reality for my theoretical example.

You can't measure the true death rate without factoring in the infected numbers, or at least without waiting long enough for a wave of infected to either die or recover. In other words, only taking into account the recoveries and deaths that happen for people between a tightly defined infection timeline far enough in the past that all infected have either recovered or died.

In the end, we probably won't know the real death rate at all, not until it fully runs its course and the final numbers are tallied. Especially with the government's fudging the numbers, any guess at the death rate is just that, a guess.

[PS Power]

True, but my point was THAT we can't know until the disease has run it's course how it is truly effecting any given person...

Also, as things seem to be turning out, that we might not want to fully trust China's numbers. Things may well be much worse there than we think, from what they are claiming to the rest of the world. (There are solid indications of that.)

I wasn't proposing that we claim it had a sixty plus percent death rate. That we need to remember not to claim things that may not be official, AS official until they are finished is the point I was making.

The biggest "tell" will be how things spread and the death toll other locations. So far the death rate hasn't been that high in other places, but in those places everyone has gotten pretty good care, which is no longer the case in China. (According to what China has been saying. They don't have enough tests, masks, gloves... Their doctors and nurses have been working constantly and are going down to the disease... That means they can't maintain great health care, which might explain the much higher level of deaths.

We will also learn a lot form the three cruise ships that are being quarantined with infected on board. I fully expect those to go down quickly (as in, they will mainly be infected) inside a week or ten days. Hopefully people will be all right.

[PS Power]

There is video and a few still shots that purport to show rows of hundreds or thousands of body bags in Guangdong Province in China. I've seen both and can't see any obvious sign of manipulation or CGI. That doesn't mean that it wasn't a large, staged event, of course.

Further, the reports from those who took the video claim that bulldozers )or only one? That wasn't clear enough for me) came and pushed the bodies into a large pit, where there were already thousands of body bags.

Given the crematoriums are working full time, at least in Wuhan (the center of the infection) that seems unlikely, if only normal deaths and eight hundred infected are being represented...

We are also seeing an unprecedented censorship of news, with only fringe and deep web sites allowing a flow of information without risk of people being "vanished". (In China. So far I have heard of people in the western cultures being threatened and having accounts shut down but nothing that smacks of false imprisonment. Not yet.

So, what are we really looking at? An epidemic that has either a much greater infection rate, or a much higher death toll than we are being told by Communist China. I know, I know, they would never lie to us. They are honest as the day is long. It's just that their truth is different than, you know, reality.

Snark aside, the troubling thing is that the CDC isn't checking people presenting symptoms unless they spent a good deal of time with someone who has recently been in Wuhan... But, as all kindergartners know, that isn't how germ work.

So, we might have everything under control... Or, we might have hundreds or even thousands of people walking around right now, spreading a disease that could, in potential, be many times more deadly than we have been told at all. I can't see the Government not understanding this is at least possible. That they don't trust us enough to be open about it... Well, anyone that lies to you, can't really rule you. They can only enslave you. If you allow them to.

[PS Power]

To see an intense version of how fast this virus spreads, check in on the cruise ships.

Right now, the one off the coast of Japan/docked there, went from 64 cases to 136. I expect almost everyone (80% or more) to test positive for this inside the next ten days.

True, a ship is a very close environment, but they are trying to keep people isolated...

It's spreading rapidly enough that it shows far more than a 4.08 R0 R (naught).

What does that mean, for the rest of us? Nothing new. The only difference is that now we have some proof that things might be getting intense for a while.

[PS Power]

Do I blame China for their reaction to this? No. Not at all. Even shooting people that are trying to escape the quarantine.
They know what they released, and understand what is needed to stop the spread.

We must contain this now.

The death toll is so much worse than they are saying. Yes, in the states people will live. At first. Went the ventilators run out, and the second wave hits, we're going to be in trouble. Only IF we get lazy now and let this keep growing in secret.

The public won't panic because they might die. They will panic because they don't have the real facts though. This is an old lesson, and I know that the CDC doesn't understand that people can make good choices when well informed.

Regardless, we can protect ourselves and others, if we act now.

Stock up.
Wash your hands.
Don't touch your face.
Be ready for a real quarantine.
Live carefully, by not doing things you don't need to in public for the duration.

Will anyone listen to this? I have no clue. People get tired and bored after a while. Three weeks into a problem that might take years to solve and we will see people claiming that it's fixed. That the most impressive, wide spread and damaging quarantine in history has worked...

But it takes at a minimum two full cycles of a disease not spreading to stop it. So far we might not have even been through one, and it is spreading still...

If the new numbers out of China, that in some this spreads for 17-24 days proves out, then everything we thought we knew is wrong.

So, Like I said, get ready and keep your heads up, ears open and smiles on your face... After all, this isn't the time for panic, it's the time to get ready for a thing that we will, hopefully, not see shaping up in our areas at all.

[PS Power]

On the sudden jump in reported cases and deaths out of China...

From 45,000 to 60,000 cases in one day? The death toll went up by 200 (or so) in the same time frame? (Largest death toll for a single day, so far, as to what has been admitted.) What is happening here?

Easy, China is moving to count diagnosed, but not tested cases of Sars-CoV-2 (Which gives you Covid-19, or you know, the Wu Flu, Corona Chan, Kung-Flu, The Death Sniffles...) which is going to skew the numbers. The big thing to see today will be if these numbers were a "catch-up" tally, or if this represents what doctors on the ground are actually reporting.

It could be either. Regardless, it won't be the true number of cases, since most people have been discouraged (rightly so!) from seeking medical treatment, if they have low level symptoms. Instead they are told to stay home and to isolate themselves. Since having a cough in public means being sent in to an open air ward, with hundreds or thousands of potentially ill people, you are much better off staying at home, whenever possible.

Just a heads up, if any other country moves to the same model right now, the number of cases would grow incredibly fast. Don't let that frighten you. It's still the same disease, with the same precautions being needed. The only difference is that now we know a bit more about what is likely going on.

Stay strong, friends. We might be in for a bumpy ride, but we'll come through this.

[PS Power]

*Also, I hate that this is being called Corona Chan and worse, the King-Flu. They are too playful, when we need people to take these things seriously. Also, Chan is a Japanese term, meaning "cutie". I'm fine with calling the Corona virus cutie*, it's just that this is mainly Chinese so far, not Japanese...

*No, really, that is one attractive virus. You know, as far as that kind of thing goes. Look up a picture and compare it with others. A truly fine looking virus.

**Not that I'm making light of this. Be careful. Be well.

[MarciaA]

https://www.siasat.com/coronavirus-shut ... 22273/amp/

[PS Power]

Yes. It's too late, of course, but we need to do anything we can to stop this.

1. There was a death from this virus, confirmed, of a woman from Panama, in a California Hospital... On January 17th. It has NOT been listed anywhere, but showed up in the medical literature. Why isn't it being counted as a death here? Why isn't it being counted as a CASE?

I honestly don't know. I could spin into conspiracy theories, or theories of foolishness, but the CDC isn't really made up of morons. So... Why isn't it being listed?

2. There is a new research paper showing that the likely R0 value (the R-naught value) is likely between 4.7-6.6. What does that mean? That up to 4 to nearly 7 people are infected by each person who has this.

3. No one, in the world, is testing people for this, simply because they have symptoms. All over the U.S. we are seeing people presenting symptoms flooding into emergency rooms... Which COULD, honestly, simply be the flu... But tell me, how often do they test for the flu? Almost never?

4. This is doubling every 2.4 days. (Same study as the R0 above.)

5. The incubation period might be, in some cases, up to 24 days before symptoms are shown. The AVERAGE is 3 days. There are outliers, however.

6. The CDC is admitting, finally, that there is asymptomatic spread of this disease. (Covid-19. It lacks a bit of style, but that seems to be the name of the disease. The Virus is calls SARS-CoV-2.) That means you can get this from people who don't seem sick.

7. What's the real death toll? We do not know. Not at all. What we can tell, out of Singapore, is that people in serious condition from this do NOT seem to show specific characteristics. That is, they AREN'T all old, infirmed, men or Asian. Instead, this seems to be serious and dangerous for people from all walks of life, which is not what we are hearing out of China.

8. The CDC says that China is lying about their numbers. The WHO is... Being kinder. Stupidly so. Do not trust the World Health Organization. They have been being caught in lie after lie, lately. Not mistakes, LIES. The WHO should never, ever be anything other than honest, even if they fear people will panic or stop shopping or EVEN be xenophobic toward Chinese people out of fear.

Yes, I have a lot more than this and the rumors are playing out, being shown to be true. I'm not talking about those, because, well, rumors... You get the idea.

I know that most things like this turn out to be nothing, in the end. Maybe this will too, somehow. But, think of it this way...

You see the sketchy man walk into the alley, you can see him standing there, his face covered with a mask, something in his right hand, held like a weapon. Lurking, waiting for you to walk by. Maybe he isn't a mugger. He might just be cold and waiting for something else...

You can't know.

So, do you walk by the alley, treading into the dark shadows, or do you cross the street and avoid him?

It's like that. It's probably nothing... But it sure looks funny, doesn't it?

[PS Power]

This undercover video was captured (it's actually an audio, in Chinese, with subtitles) on February 3rd or 4rth.



What is being described is a cremation processing rate of about 1200 bodies. (4 to 5 times the normal amount of dead). The mortuary worker, who is being tricked into thinking he is speaking to someone from the government, states that 61% of the pickups (the dead) died at home, with 38% coming from the hospitals... (Which leaves a bit, but that is probably correct. A certain number will die in public places or the street, on the way to seek help, for instance.)

This is simply confirmation of what was being spoken of before/at the time.

Now, are the numbers in China actually falling, or at least leveling out? They should be! They are doing a tight quarantine, the likes of which the world has never seen before. If this can't work there, then we will have real problems in the States, if it breaks out here.

In other news/rumors, word has it that the CDC is slowly letting information leak that there are tens of thousands of cases in the U.S. already. There have been deaths, but they are not being reported. I have confirmation on one of those deaths, which took place early in January. (The old woman from Panama, indicated in a prior post.)

I think I'm going to write up a short book (20,000 words?) On what people can and should do in a pandemic situation. Not just what to do, but why and some tricks that can be used to keep yourself motivated when locked in place.

It needs to be good. I'm not certain we get out of this one unscathed, even if we do know to wash our freaking hands and not touch our faces...

I'm still hopeful, but you know the rule. Hope for the best, prepare for the unknown.