Carona virus/Wuhan China/Pandemic

[PS Power]

On the bad side, we're about to experience some real food disruptions leading to shortages...

On the good side, America's obesity problem is about to vanish!

[PS Power]

We are entering the stage of foolishness now. I know, you probably thought we were in it, but no... this is the beginning of stage two...

The numbers projected for infection and death have, of course, dropped as predicted.

Now, inevitably, idiots will start proclaiming that we have won and that this was always "just the flu, bro". Then they will go back to their old ways, which will spread the virus again, causing a sudden and sharp spike in about two months. (After we go back to life as usual.) It will almost certainly be a lot worse than the first one, and people will be even more on edge, lacking resources and funds to carry them through it.

The truth is, we have to go back to work and doing that will allow this to spread. This seems to be panning out as much, much worse than we were being told at the start.

There is a very good chance that you don't become immune to this long term. (3 out of the 4 known Corona viruses that are well studied have that trait. These are common colds, but you become immune for a few months after having it, that fades and you are left vulnerable again. This one appears to be showing that same trait. So, vaccines probably won't work for it and having it once won't give you life long protection.)

South Korean scientists suspect (with some cause) that this is also hiding in the body and reoccurring. (More evidence has come out, but it is still not certain. Lets all hope that isn't the case?)

So, if these factors are true, we are going to have way more trouble with this than it seems. In short, we can't beat this, if there is no immunity and people have it pop out of them after having it once. We can never return to normal.

Unless we come up with a new form of treatment that can protect us? I have nothing that way, myself. If you do, dust it off and put it out for investigation. now is not the time to sit on miracle cures!

[qHnED7SnYgQs]

Camostat mesilate, maybe.

It's an inhibitor of the type of protease that's required to activate the spike protein. It's effective in in vitro to prevent viral cell entry (for SARS-CoV-2 and MERS), the big question is if a non-toxic dosage of it is sufficient to reproduce that effect in humans.

It's an approved medication in Japan for pancreatitis.

[PS Power]

I hope we get to see real testing of some of these things. We might have to try hundreds before finding an answer. Maybe more.

We need to be getting on these things (getting to the real science) fast. If there is a 10% chance that this bug is going to stick around and that the death rates aren't going down, then it's important on a level that most won't get. Yet.

[PS Power]

1. We are going to see a large "denial meltdown" in the next weeks. There are people who, even while others are dying, will force their employees back to work, which WILL cause a sudden, much faster, spread of this virus and related strains.

2. The WHO/CDC have virtually stopped predicting the death rate of this disease. Not because, as some have put forward, "it's just the flu" in numbers. No, it's due to the fact that this is, as has always been the case, much worse than they predicted at the start. The numbers are still showing the same death rate I predicted and have not varied from it so far, over time. That indicated we are probably looking at a slightly over 10% rate of death in the first infection. Subsequent infections are an unknown at this time.

3. The WHO has finally admitted (late to the game, again) that we do not know if people build an immunity to this disease at all, and that there are indications that at least some people don't. What are they really telling us? That a vaccine, the only real hope being held out so far, might not be coming. Ever. (Vaccines require the body to build an immunity to a virus in order to work. Some viruses, for various reasons, don't allow that to happen. In those cases, there is no possible vaccine under known protocols. We will need something new.)

4. All of that said... We still have to get back to work. We simply need to understand that we will all get this and, if there is no immunity (over time) OR it reasserts itself from inside the body (which is increasingly likely, but not certain as of yet) that we will be continually hammered with this thing until something breaks.

*Right now we are about to see some desperation moves being made by those in the know. We already know that we both have to open things back up and cannot do so. The quarantines work, but the world economy has already been scuttled...

With the virus re-emerging, even if only in 30% of people, and at least some not building a proper immunity to it, there is literally no way to control this virus.

There does not seem to be a warm weather "summer break" coming as with the flu.

We need to come up with alternative plans, that being the case. Social distancing and hygiene need to become a way of life. People who break the rules will have to be stopped from doing so in a way that will make a difference...

Things that no one will allow for until well after massive deaths have come from this.

** I'm still holding out hop that I'm wrong, but the level of denial and simply creating "facts" or spinning things to insane and unsupported levels is going to be it's own problem. We are hear talk of "freedom" and "Rights" when we should be hearing about duty and discipline. We are hearing about the new normal when none of this is normal at all. We don't even know what we are ultimately facing yet. There is no normal at the start of a massive change. That comes after it is over...

And we will have to MAKE that happen. This isn't going away on it's own, at this point. Yes, stay hopeful, but also keep an eye on the real facts, the research and science and be ready to do what is needed.

Remember the first rule:

Survive.

[PS Power]

There are more indications, though frankly, they are more "reading between the lines" than most of the things I have posted...

1. A lot of people including form the CDC, various health departments and so on have used similar talking points suddenly... "We need to get a handle on the blood titors. Who knows how long they might make someone immune... A month, three months, six? A year? We just don't know."

Why is that important? Because everyone in the know is suddenly ignoring that they were pretty much all claiming that having Sars-CoV-2 once gave long term immunity.

In fact, our entire plan is based on that factor. Without immunity being long term, you can't have a vaccine that works... Or herd immunity.

2. The government is acting as if they are suddenly afraid that people are going to revolt. This started a few weeks ago, but now they are actually acting like it's a real threat.

The problem here is, who do they think the people would be attacking? The politicians are all in hiding, or behind high fences. Doctors and nurses just work in hospitals, clinics and offices, they don't make laws or enforce them. The police are the likely target, but what is that going to change?

My best guess is that we are about to see people taking some rather wild mob actions. *Though the one above, #1 is far stronger this way as far as evidence goes.

[MarciaA]

“By Friday, Korean health authorities had identified 163 patients who tested positive again after a full recovery. The number more than doubled in about a week, up from 74 cases on April 9.”

[PS Power]

Some (Potentially) good news!

The SK study showed that the positive tests, after coming back negative, where actually artifacts of the testing. Which doesn't mean much as to how long the immunity lasts or latency (the virus being dormant in the system) or chronic infection... But it does mean that people probably won't be hit with wave after wave or illness every month or two! That's a win!

Now, just a heads up...

Everything is "opening up" again. That does, in no way, mean that it's safe. We were always going to do this and it was always going to lead to a much bigger, deadlier outbreak. Keep your personal safety measures in use, avoid crowds and even people, if possible. If not, wear a mask (Remember, the mask protect them, not you!)

People will not be complying with social distancing or the wearing of masks once it gets warm, which will spread this at a level most won't believe, then, on the other side, as people get sick and die... About half of people will scream about hoaxes and refuse to comply with life saving measures.

It happened in 1918 and will happen again. (Look up the Anti-Mask League of 1918...)

This will last for years. THEY are saying two years... But we probably won't have long term immunity (corona viruses don't have that in humans) making a vaccine not liable to ever work, long term. We may be able to find a short term vaccine though? (Coverage for 1-3 years would make it possible to isolate areas and protect most of the people in cases of an outbreak? We've never really done that before, so who knows?)

That's baring mutations of course, since those might invalidate that kind of thing. Drug treatments are possible, but anti-viral drugs don't work very well, in most cases.

So, start making adaptive plans right now. How do you live with this, long term? We've done that before, with HIV. (Remember the seventies when you could just go and have sex? I don't. I was a child then... I hear it was a friendlier time though. Sex is pretty much only for marriage and suicidal people now, I suppose...)

Next up isn't just the coming war with China and the biggest depression in recorded human history, but those things with a massive plague AND (some) religious types trying to bring about the "end times" all at once. This isn't the dystopian future. This is your time to get ready for that.

[PS Power]

The virus destroys part of the immune system that is responsible for locating (and thus destroying) viral invaders into the body.

The major histocompatable complex, or some such. (I almost certainly got that wrong, but I picked up what it means.) This "trick" is found in diseases (viruses) that are chronic in nature. (HIV/Herpes Things that you get and never get rid of...) This may or may not mean that it will have this effect in humans, but long term immunity to SARS-CoV-2 is looking less likely by the day.

It's a very good time to reconsider what life is and how we will have to exist in the future. I might write a (fiction) book on that idea...

Something set in the near future, examining what is needed to survive? That might be too dark. I'll go with aliens, I think...

[MarciaA]

That’s an interesting idea. Aliens are interesting